Here is an update concerning the heavy rain threat Saturday into Sunday.  Also included are notes regarding gusty winds and marine hazards expected Saturday into Sunday.  Graphics have been updated and are current as of about 4:30am.  

Note that rainfall, timing, and wind gust forecasts have changed very little compared to the previous report.

The Dangerous Marine Conditions Expected have stepped down a level and now range from Small Craft Advisory to Gale Warning.

Reminder:

You can find more detailed, hourly weather forecast information pertaining to parade locations in our Mardi Gras Decision Support Page. 

Overview:

WHAT: 

• SLIGHT to MARGINAL RISK of excessive rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3" with locally higher amounts which, due to antecedent saturated soil conditions and in urban areas, may lead to isolated areas of flash flooding. 
• Wind gusts 25-35mph, possibly higher in any heavier t-storm. Winds of this magnitude are below our advisory criteria, but are notable because they could have impacts on high profile vehicles (such as Mardi Gras floats).

WHEN:  

• Heaviest rains and threat of isolated flash flooding are expected Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Very light showers may linger into Monday.
• Winds are expected to increase primarily in the afternoon/evening hours lasting thru early Sunday morning.

WHERE:   

• The entire area, but focus will be on the Slight Risk area primarily along/south of I-10/12 and across the Pearl River basin.
• Gusty winds will be possible across the entire area - however greater confidence for higher wind gusts will be along coastal areas of SE LA and southern MS.

CONFIDENCE:  

• We are very confident in widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" of rain, with isolated higher amounts. We have moderate confidence that the heavy rain will lead to at least isolated impacts.
• We are very confident in the occurrence of gusty winds in excess of 25 to 35mph, with locally higher gusts possible in any heavier t-storm.

Impacts:

• Intense rain rates over antecedent saturated soil conditions and in urban areas 
  may lead to isolated spots of flash flooding. 
• Strong, gusty winds could impact high profile vehicles.
• Possible ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas - especially in Slight Risk area. 

Additional Information and Resources:

• NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

• NWS New Orleans DSS Website: https://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

• River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

• NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

• NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

• Online Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report